Nearly 800,000 people displaced by war against Iran and Lebanon

The escalating conflict in the Middle East has placed the civilian population in an unprecedented bind that threatens to dismantle the last remaining safe havens in the region. The attack launched on February 28 by the U.S. And Israel on Iran and Lebanon has caused the forced displacement of at least 767,700 people in those countries, according to estimates released on Tuesday by the United Nations’ refugee agency (UNHCR), and has left some 14.1 million people who were already refugees in the region in a situation of extreme vulnerability. Ayaki Ito, Director of Emergencies and Programme Support at the agency, described the situation as a “grave humanitarian emergency” at a news conference held in Geneva last Friday, when that figure was still less than half what it is now. Even then, the official acknowledged that the number was likely an “underestimate.”

Displaced people face significant protection risks and humanitarian needs, as do host communities. Iran, which for decades has been a lifeline for the world’s largest refugee population, is now teetering on the brink of collapse, leaving millions of Afghans unprotected. At the same time, the strikes on Lebanon has sown panic and driven thousands of families to cross the border into a devastated Syria.

The vulnerability of millions of people is further exacerbated by a lack of financial resources. In 2025, global funding for humanitarian aid contracted by 30%, including the closure of US-funded programs that President Donald Trump ordered canceled.

The United Nations has warned that the rapid escalation of hostilities is placing increasing pressure on humanitarian capabilities and on host communities, with a rise in protection needs, the risk of further internal displacement, and potential flows into neighboring countries. The spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General, Stéphane Dujarric, stated at a press conference last Thursday that humanitarian operations are being hampered, hindering the delivery of vital aid. This has reduced the capacity of neighboring countries to protect displaced persons and refugees, who now face the dilemma of remaining in a country at war or attempting to flee to another where their safety is no longer guaranteed.

Iran

In Iran, where bombings have caused 1,270 of the 1,896 recorded deaths—including that of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—the largest displacement of people is occurring in the capital, Tehran, which has been heavily damaged by the attacks. There, some 100,000 people fled in the two days following the start of the bombing, and between 1,000 and 2,000 vehicles a day left the capital, mostly heading north. Another 6,500 people have crossed into Turkey. “UNHCR staff in that country are receiving hundreds of calls a day from Iranians requesting assistance,” Ito reported.

UNHCR says that, for now, the displacements are mainly occurring within national borders, but even so at least 14,300 Lebanese and Iranian nationals have crossed their countries’ borders in recent days.

But population movements in the Islamic Republic are also a cause for concern in Europe, and were already so before February 28, judging by the warnings issued by the European Asylum Agency in its annual global trends report, presented last Tuesday. Drafted before the attacks began, the document already considered Iran one of the main hotspots of instability for 2026 due to the consequences of the U.S. And Israeli bombings of June 2025 on Iranian nuclear facilities and, internally, the unrest linked to the economic collapse and political repression earlier this year.

The European asylum office warns that, with a population of 92 million, even partial destabilization could generate refugee flows of “unprecedented” magnitude. If just 10% of the Iranian population were displaced, the resulting crisis could rival that triggered by Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine or that of 2015 and 2016, when more than a million people fleeing the war in Syria and other conflicts entered Europe. “Observers increasingly view unrest in Iran as a significant and long-term risk, the outlook for which remains highly uncertain,” the report states.

The European Union, focused on managing the international crisis, has not yet issued any statement regarding the possibility that the conflict could trigger a new refugee crisis in Europe. Only the Spanish Interior Minister, Fernando Grande-Marlaska, offered a reassuring message this Thursday upon arriving at the Council of Ministers of the 27 member states. “We have the means, the capabilities, and above all, the clear will to protect those who need protection. In that case, there would be no problem because we have already faced similar crises,” he stated.

Iran presents an additional challenge. The country hosts 3.8 million refugees, mostly from Afghanistan, making it the country with the largest number of refugees in the world. The European Asylum Agency points out that if the country implodes, this population would also be severely affected. The UNHCR spokesperson in Spain, Paula Barrachina, noted that the region was already extremely vulnerable before the current escalation of conflict because many of the countries involved host millions of refugees and internally displaced persons. “Their communities have demonstrated extraordinary solidarity for years, but their resources are stretched to the limit,” she said in a statement.

Lebanon

The second Middle Eastern country experiencing the largest population movements is Lebanon. There, the Israeli army intensified its bombing campaign after the pro-Iranian militia Hezbollah entered the war to avenge the death of Ayatollah Khamenei. The two countries had signed a ceasefire in November 2024, but Israel continued its almost daily attacks, generally targeting suspected Hezbollah positions and resulting in nearly 400 deaths.

Israel began bombing the south and east of the country, as well as the capital, Beirut, in the early hours of Monday. Early Thursday morning, it also hit the Bedawi Palestinian refugee camp in the north of the country for the first time in this conflict.

The escalation of hostilities has forced more than 667,000 people to flee their homes in Lebanon, including 200,000 children, the UN reported on Monday. The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which has left more than 400 dead (including 83 children killed as of Sunday), is now in its second week.

The largest displacements are occurring in the south of the country, in the Bekaa Valley and in Beirut, following evacuation orders issued by Israel to residents of some 50 towns. In the capital, the Israeli army on Thursday demanded the evacuation of four southern neighborhoods where approximately 250,000 people live, bringing the total number of those affected to over 800,000.

Another particularly sensitive point is the border with Syria. Lebanon has about 5.8 million inhabitants, but the figure fluctuates considerably because almost 20% of its residents are refugees. More than a million Syrians sought refuge in Lebanon, of whom around 500,000 still remain. But the current war is causing a new exodus, as another 78,000 people—mainly Syrians, but also some 7,800 Lebanese—have crossed into Syria in recent days. “Those trying to flee are spending the nights in their vehicles, on the sides of the road, or stuck in traffic jams,” explains the humanitarian agency.

On March 2 alone, nearly 10,000 Syrians and almost 1,000 Lebanese crossed the Jdeidet Yabous and Joussieh border crossings from southern Lebanon and southern Beirut. That figure represents roughly triple the average daily number of crossings recorded since the start of Ramadan.

In Syria, following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad in late 2024 by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a transitional government was formed in March 2025. This relative stability led to a sharp drop in Syrian asylum applications in the European Union: a 72% decrease in 2025, falling from 151,000 in 2024 to 42,000 in 2025. In addition, some 1.4 million Syrians returned from abroad.

However, the European asylum agency had already warned before the new escalation of the war that, despite the pause in hostilities, tensions between the transitional government and the Kurdish-led forces in the northeast had been intensifying since the beginning of the year, threatening to reignite instability.

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