Bolsonaro’s son ties with Lula for the first time in an election poll in Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva resumed his national agenda on Thursday after an intense trip that took him to the other side of the world, to India and South Korea, with a stopover in the United Arab Emirates, in search of allies during these turbulent times. But an electoral survey released on Wednesday likely dampened his spirits. The AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll is the first to suggest a virtual tie in a simulated runoff of the October election between Lula and the right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the imprisoned ex-president Jair Bolsonaro. Just over seven months remain until Brazil holds presidential, legislative and gubernatorial elections.

The poll indicates that Lula would defeat any other candidate in the first round with 45%, followed by Bolsonaro’s son (39%), who is gradually closing the gap since his father handpicked him as a successor. The surprise comes in the projection for the second round of voting, where the poll concludes that Senator Bolsonaro would garner 46.3%, one-tenth of a point ahead of the 46.2% for the veteran leftist, who is seeking a fourth term.

They both face a similar problem: extremely high disapproval ratings (48% for the president, 46% for the senator), meaning there are very few swing votes that could push either of them to victory.

Flávio Bolsonaro celebrated the news of the virtual tie: “The fight has just begun. We still have a long way to go to rescue Brazil,” he tweeted. The presidential hopeful faces his first major test this Sunday, when he has called on Bolsonaro supporters to gather on Paulista Avenue in São Paulo. The turnout of followers and the array of right-wing politicians and family members accompanying him will be closely scrutinized. The speed with which his father’s electorate has embraced him has surprised many observers.

On Thursday, Lula received another blow, this time from within his family. The personal bank accounts and tax returns of one of his five children, Fábio Luis, are going to be analyzed by a parliamentary committee investigating a multi-million dollar pension fraud scandal involving the National Social Security Institute. Lula’s son’s alleged connection to the scandal stems from a suspicious payment made by one of the ringleaders of the embezzlement scheme to a businesswoman who is a friend of his. When his son’s name surfaced, the president immediately summoned him to Brasília, according to Lula himself. “I looked him in the eye and said, ‘If you have something [irregular or illegal going on], you will pay the price. If you don’t, defend yourself.’” Suspicions have also implicated the president’s older brother, a union leader.

At the start of 2026, Lula has maintained a busy international schedule. First through phone calls, and then with his final major foreign tour before embarking on the election campaign. During his official visits to India and South Korea, the Brazilian president strengthened ties with Narendra Modi (a partner in the BRICS alliance) and with Lee Jae-myung (with whom he shares a past as a factory worker). With both, he finalized numerous agreements to boost bilateral trade, including in critical minerals and rare earth elements.

Senator Bolsonaro has also been touring abroad this year, along with his brother Eduardo, to make himself known among the leaders of the far-right populist network.

Several observers point to a decision related to Carnival, Brazil’s biggest event of the past month, as the origin of Lula’s slide in the polls. “Lula harmed himself by embarking on the catastrophic idea of ​​associating himself with a fawning parade by a samba school that decided to pay tribute to him,” writes César Felício this Thursday in the business daily Valor. The samba school that brought Lula’s epic story to the Rio Sambadrome included figures that evangelicals might consider offensive — cans with conservative families inside. The controversy was inevitable, as this social group is one of the most resistant to the founder of the Workers’ Party (PT). And to top it all off, the school finished last in the competition. The jokes and the criticism quickly poured in.

Columnist Vera Magalhães argues in the newspaper O Globo that, with Lula back in Brazil, his team believes it’s time to stop ignoring Bolsonaro’s son and treat him as an adversary, accelerating decision-making. One crucial decision is who will run with Lula as the vice-presidential candidate, and who will accept the challenge of running for governor of São Paulo, where victory seems a pipe dream against Bolsonaro supporter Tarcísio de Freitas. But securing a large number of votes in São Paulo is essential to reaching the presidency.

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