Amanda Sloat, former Biden adviser: ‘The distrust between Europe and the United States will last a generation’

Amanda Sloat, 50, knows the transatlantic relationship well, having lived on both sides of the ocean and worked in the most powerful offices. She has also closely followed Europe’s neighbors: Russia, the Middle East, and North Africa. She has a feeling that something is breaking down in the Euro-American alliance that shaped the post-World War II West, and that it will take a long time to repair.

The political scientist served as special assistant to former U.S. President Joe Biden and senior director for Europe at the National Security Council. Previously, in the Obama administration, she was deputy assistant secretary at the State Department and senior adviser to the White House for the Middle East and North Africa. A year ago, she moved to Madrid, where she works as a professor at the School of Politics, Economics, and Global Affairs at IE University, and hosts the geopolitical podcast Power & Purpose.

From her new home in Madrid’s Salamanca district, she watches with concern as events unfold in her country: the raids on immigrants, the militarization of the streets, the dismantling of international cooperation, and the way Donald Trump governs by decree, bypassing Congress. And she feels relieved by the Supreme Court ruling that overturns most of the tariffs the president imposed on both allies and rivals.

Question. Is the U.S. Experiencing a democratic backslide?

Answer. Democracy in the United States, and its institutions, are certainly under pressure. They are holding, but under strain. What is unusual is that Congress often absolves itself of its normal responsibility to serve as a co-equal branch of government in the legislative process and in overseeing the executive branch. This has been seen in debates including tariffs, the use of military force, and the elimination of institutions like USAID that were congressionally mandated.

At the same time, we see tensions in the judicial system: there are very active courts at the state and federal level, but in several cases, the Supreme Court, dominated by conservative justices, has deferred to the executive branch’s wishes. For example, by granting the president complete criminal immunity from actions conducted while in office, the power to remove personnel from independent agencies, and authorizing indiscriminate ICE raids. However, the ruling on tariffs was a rebuke to the executive overreach. There are also growing concerns about whether the midterm elections will be free and fair.

Q. What will happen after the Supreme Court ruling that invalidates the tariffs?

A. Although the ruling is helpful, it will be difficult for businesses to obtain refunds on tariffs already paid. And the Trump administration is already seeking alternative legal mechanisms to impose new tariffs.

Q. You ask Europe to support resistance to this authoritarian drift in the U.S. But what can Europe do?

A. First and foremost, this is a fight for the American people and we are seeing sustained pushback, like that seen in Minneapolis or in the No Kings Day protests, which brought five million people to the streets. We are seeing more protests than during Trump’s first term. We are also seeing more novel activities by protesters organizing at community level, for example in Minneapolis in response to ICE actions. And there are examples of successful boycotts against companies like Tesla, given what Elon Musk was doing in the administration, or Disney, when they tried to cancel Jimmy Kimmel’s show and had to back down.

However, a democratic backslide in the U.S. Has broader implications for allies. I understand that it is very complicated for them to engage in public criticism, but it helps to not normalize it. If we recall other cases of democratic backsliding, it is helpful to hear voices from other countries in support of the people on the front lines. And, frankly, Europe needs to shore up its own democratic institutions.

Q. Europe has its own problem with the far right. Could what we see in the U.S. End up happening here?

A. Absolutely. The far right is in power in some governments and is has growing support in countries like the U.K., France, Germany, and here in Spain. It’s important that governments take action to shore up democratic institutions and take these trends seriously at home. Otherwise, a number of these large countries are just one bad election away from ending up with a very similar set of challenges to what we have in the U.S.

Q. After Trump’s threat regarding Greenland, do you believe that Europe can count on U.S. Military protection in the event of aggression from Russia?

A. NATO’s strength lies in deterrence; the very fact that we’re asking this question is weakening it. So far, the U.S. Commitment has been there, but Trump himself has raised questions about whether it would come to the defense of countries that fail to meet military spending targets. It’s quite clear that European countries are expected to spend significantly more on their defense because it is going to be unsustainable in the long term for American taxpayers to do that.

Q. But building a fully autonomous European defense system will take a long time, given it relies heavily on U.S. Technology and intelligence.

A. There are specific areas where Europe lacks these capabilities. The ideal scenario would be that the American withdrawal from providing so much of Europe’s security would be done at a pace that allows Europe to actually develop and implement those capabilities themselves.

Q. It is important for Europe that Ukraine not be forced into an agreement that could be interpreted as a surrender, don’t you think?

A. Absolutely. Ukraine is Europe’s eastern flank and is fighting for Europe on the front lines of a broader conflict. Beyond the moral imperative of ensuring a just outcome to the conflict, there is a broader strategic question for Europe: not allowing countries to invade other countries and to change borders by force.

Q. You maintain that the transatlantic relations will never be the same again even if the next U.S. President is a Democrat. Why?

A. The transatlantic relationship will always be important. The EU and the U.S. Have the largest trade and investment relationship in the world, and share security interests. I think that will continue. What concerns me is that trust in the relationship has been broken not once, but twice. President Biden made a strong effort to restore it. The fact that this trust has been broken a second time, and in a much more egregious way than in Trump’s first term, is forcing Europe to rethink its entire relationship with the U.S. And it pains me to say this, but I find it hard to imagine that trust being restored within a generation, even with a Democratic administration or a much more moderate Republican administration coming into office with good faith and a desire to reset that relationship.

Q. The European Union is confronting the major U.S. Tech companies with sanctions and investigations, which is unacceptable to the White House. But in a hypothetical conflict over this issue, Europe has no alternative to replace the services that Microsoft, Amazon, or Google provide to its businesses and citizens. Can it maintain this pressure?

A. There is a heavy dependence, especially in cloud and computing services. And, in many cases, there are strong connections between the U.S. Government and American tech firms. It is not difficult to imagine a scenario where the Trump administration ask these companies to restrict access by these companies on European firms or individuals if measures are taken that Washington does not agree with. This is another area in which Europe needs to make an effort to develop its own indigenous technological capabilities.

Q. Trump backtracked on his rhetoric regarding the annexation of Greenland, ruling out military action and withdrawing the threat of tariffs, after turbulence in the bond market and in the dollar. Are the markets the best way to stop him?

A. So far, the markets have been the main check on his power: they were after Liberation Day, with the imposition of tariffs, and they were in the Greenland issue. Clearly the market is something he is paying close attention to. The question is whether Congress will react as well. We saw Republicans expressing concern about the situation in Greenland; a growing debate about the legality of the strikes in Venezuela and against so-called narco boats; some pushback to raids on supposedly undocumented immigrants... So there are some places where some court or congressional pushback has started to break through, but so far as you said the market reaction seems to be the main thing that’s putting a check on the president’s actions.

Q. Do you believe in the alliance of middle powers, including the EU, the U.K. And Canada, proposed in Davos by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney?

A. There is certainly a trend toward a more multipolar world. We are seeing a much more aggressive Russia and a more powerful China, while the U.S. Is pulling back its influence through soft power and development aid. That creates space for other powers to gain influence. It will be difficult for an alliance of middle powers to entirely compete against the power of the United States and the other two major powers. But, frankly, I don’t see a real alternative for these countries beyond strengthening their relationships.

Q. Is China the big winner from the U.S. Withdrawal?

A. It certainly benefits. It has been incredibly active for many years in building infrastructure and supporting countries in Africa and Latin America. It is moving to fill the space left by the U.S. My hope is that Europe will not be pressured into having closer ties with China. It would be a mistake for Europe to shift its dependency on the United States to its dependency on China in matters such as the economy or technology. Europe needs to develop its own capabilities.

Q. Is your move to Spain something similar to voluntary exile?

A. I had left the U.S. A year before the election and was happily traveling the world. I had lived in Europe for most of my twenties, and really enjoyed it. So I was very happy to return. Frankly, after two decades in Washington, it was time for a change of scenery.